UFC ESPN 1 & Bellator 215/216

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Matt Mitrione FREE Breakdown:
Sergei Kharitonov comes into this one riding high with all the bookies after beating Roy Nelson, but in age 38 his skills are unlikely to be advancing. Mitrione has the exceptional technique, power and durability standing that ought to see him using a sensible advantage. Kharitonov will be looking to acquire the fight down but it will be difficult given Mitrione’s superior athleticism. Expect a tentative beginning from both men before Mitrione starts accumulating strikes for a TKO stoppage.
Bet = Mitrione at 1.95 (-105) odds. Risk 3 Units to acquire 2.85 Units.Francis Ngannou Breakdown:
Cain is coming to this fight after a significant injury layoff. In fact he’s had just 1 success because Ngannou entered the UFC, having fought 9 times himself. With so many question marks on his condition the struggle appears to be lined too wide. Ngannou clearly has enormous stopping power and will be quite dangerous on the feet early. If Cain has lost a step or comes from appearing slow he’s in trouble. Historically his style attracts a lot of pressure to competitions but he’s receptive to taking shots himself, especially when gassed. Both guys have paths to victory here, Ngannou can keep the fight standing and discover an early KO. Cain will wish to avoid the early storm and seem to wear the larger man out with takedowns and cage strain. We like the underdog in what looks to be a 50/50 battle going in. However, the winner of this struggle is likely to look dominant.
Bet = Ngannou in 2.65 (+165) odds. Risk 2 Units to acquire 3.3 Units.
James Vick Breakdown:
Vick’s stock is at an all-time low after his latest KO but his conduct towards the top was impressive. Inside this matchup he’ll be the superior technical boxer with both the duration and speed advantage. Felder has a tendency to mirror his opponent but he will have to turn this one into a brawl to find success. It’s possible he connects with a kill shot, but all other avenues to victory have been in Vick’s favour. Felder requires a close range fight to utilise his very best weapons but Vick has revealed he can stick into a gameplan and keep it at range. We like the lineup on Vick to cruise to victory with a clinical choice.
Bet = Vick in 1.91 (-110) odds. Risk 3 Units to win 2.73 Units.
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